Will Latter-day Saints and youth decide our next president?
By Renae Cowley & Frank Pignanelli
We review how the incredibly tight presidential race is raising awareness of these important citizens.
Kamala Harris’ campaign launched a “Latter-day Saint Advisory Committee” in Arizona. Donald Trump recently stopped in Utah for a fundraiser. Both are courting members of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints. Could this bloc of traditionally conservative voters make a difference in the election?
Cowley: The two most famous Latter-day Saints in political history are Mitt Romney and Harry Reid, yet the only thing they had in common is where they worshipped … and perhaps a Diet Coke addiction. It is hard to code members of the church as hardline Republicans. Broadly, they oppose abortion but show compassion for immigration. They sing “Love One Another” and are turned off by Trump’s mean tweets. The modern party realignment is occurring among Latter-day Saint voters.
This election will be determined by slim margins in swing states like Arizona, which has a sizable Latter-day Saint population. Both campaigns are smart to not ignore this important voting bloc.
Pignanelli: “An advantage can be tiny, though in this election, tiny is not nothing.” —Dan Balz, Washington Post
Ah. The perennial quadrennial question of how members of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints (especially outside of Utah) will vote in a presidential election.
Normally, even if they voted as a bloc, church members in other states would have minimal impact. But 2024 is different. Over 400,000 adherents live in Arizona, approximately 6% of the population. Natesilver.net documents a statistical tie (48.1% Trump, 47.3% Harris) in the Grand Canyon state. Thus, Latter-day Saints could have a meaningful impact.
As a lifelong Utahn, I frequently observe differences in how local members differ in their approaches towards cultural, social and political issues than the faithful outside the state. Yet, they all share a common commitment to strong families, religious liberties, compassion and efficient governance. Candidates using this appeal would have a receptive audience amongst this group.
Typically, Latter-day Saints prefer Republicans. But again, 2024 is different. Trump won Utah but with the lowest percentage of the red states. There is no love for progressive Democrats either. Therefore, opportunities exist to persuade either side. Further, a focus on Latter-day Saints in the swing states will attract not only them but likely other active religious voters who share similar values.
The attention from both campaigns is a well-deserved recognition.
Research shows there is a massive gender gap in how Gen Z identifies politically, more divergent than any previous generation. What accounts for this divide and how will it impact elections now and in the future?
Cowley: After two decades of wussification, masculinity is having a renaissance, and the Trump/Vance ticket is taking advantage of it. Gen Z men listen to bro-style podcasts, where Trump is a frequent guest.
Abortion is a driving issue for young women, and Harris has made it a central tenet of her campaign. Her strongest appeal to Gen Z female voters is that she’s not Trump.
There is a growing cynicism of young voters, regardless of gender. Their distrust of government is having a chilling effect on their political engagement. It is in vogue for them to say they don’t follow politics, but a true flex would be getting informed, becoming involved and voting.
It’s clear both candidates are aggressively campaigning for the gender they think will win them the election. It is only a matter of time till we learn which is truly the superior sex — at least when it comes to voter turnout.
Pignanelli: A recent survey conducted by Social Sphere/Business Insider of voters under 30 in swing states revealed 59% of women preferred Harris compared to only 38% of men. Careless messaging in both campaigns is driving this division. Further, this group is participating at historically higher rates. Strategic attention is merited.
A study from last year documented that younger Latter-day Saint voters are increasingly identifying as less conservative and more independent than their parents. Is this dynamic real, and what does it mean for the upcoming elections?
Cowley: Young adults today are facing challenges their parents and predecessors did not. Social media pressures, declining self-image, mental health struggles and liberal indoctrination at many universities, and the entertainment industry is continually creating more jaw-dropping and sensational content while fanning the flames of contention. All of these things are impacting the erosion of traditional values and the development of political philosophies.
When Hollywood pushes a liberal agenda, it is not cool to be conservative. Young members of the faith are not immune from these pressures. We will see if that trend persists when they start paying more taxes, but for now, these young adults are being inundated with a radicalization of society and rebellion against their parents’ principles.
Pignanelli: Whether originating from the left or right, extreme, harsh rhetoric accompanied by disrespect to others is unsettling to the faithful — particularly those under 40 years. Data from various sources illustrate the centrist trend but does not guarantee automatic gains for Democrats. The left must adjust messaging to capture these roaming voters.