Will Trump be convicted in 2024? Predictions for the 2024 political year

Will Mitt Romney join Joe Manchin on a No Labels presidential ticket? Will President Joe Biden be impeached?

By Frank Pignanelli & LaVarr Webb

We are frequently wrong, but seldom in doubt. Thus, we make bold, risky and wildly speculative predictions for the new year. Hang on to this column so you can cheer or laugh as we are shown to be seers or quacks. 

Will Donald Trump be convicted of a crime and jailed in 2024?

Pignanelli: “I try not to get involved in the business of prediction. It’s a quick way to look like an idiot.” — Warren Ellis   

The former president is vulnerable on the records charges, and will be found guilty for mishandling some documents. He will be admonished, but he will not serve any time. Also, all the trials on the criminal indictments will be postponed until after this election year. Trump will not be wearing orange jumpsuits in 2024.

Webb: Trump will be convicted on at least a few of the 91 felony charges against him across four cases. But delays and appeals will keep him out of jail. The convictions will not hurt him with his diehard supporters.

Will Utah’s GOP presidential preference vote in March caucus meetings give Trump an advantage?

Pignanelli: Yes. If Utah was conducting a preference ballot for all registered Republicans, Nikki Haley would garner a huge victory. The precinct caucus vote system will result in a much tighter contest between Haley and Trump, but she still wins.

Webb: Participation in the caucus meetings will be very low, compared to a normal primary election vote. With committed GOP activists making up the bulk of caucus attendees, Trump will have a big advantage and will win.

Will 2024 be a repeat of Trump versus Joe Biden? Who will win? If not Trump-Biden, who are the nominees and winner?

Pignanelli: The desire among Republicans to beat Biden will cause a deadlocked national Republican convention in July. After several ballots, Haley prevails. Tensions are eased within the GOP and Republicans eagerly unite behind their ticket. Because the economy is improving, Biden stays in the race and is nominated. Democrats lose enthusiasm. Haley wins both the popular and Electoral College vote.

Webb: Unfortunately, Trump and Biden will win their respective party nominations. The general election will be a stinky dumpster fire featuring old, unpopular, deeply flawed candidates. No one will be enthusiastic about the choices except party die-hards. Trump will eventually crawl out of the dumpster debris as the Electoral College winner.

Will Mitt Romney join Joe Manchin on a No Labels presidential ticket?

Pignanelli: No. But he plays a prominent adviser role and will be a public spokesperson for the cause if Trump and Biden are the nominees.

Webb: Romney will be greatly tempted to join a No Labels ticket, especially if it might reduce Trump’s chance of winning the nomination. But he will ultimately decide against running, concluding that No Labels might hurt Biden as much as Trump.

Will the contest for the U.S. Senate nomination in Utah be an ugly fight between local and national factions within the GOP?

Pignanelli: Contrary to current opinion, the fight for the U.S. Senate primary will be a well-funded cage match. Brad Wilson and John Curtis are wonderful individuals and extremely competent politicians but will face difficulty controlling the trajectory of this race. The hostile dynamics between different Republican factions in other parts of the country will foment a proxy battle in the state. Utahns will be frustrated with the bombardment from outside interests.

Webb: The Senate GOP primary race will get unpleasant, especially if Trump makes an endorsement in the race, likely favoring Brad Wilson over John Curtis. Nationally, the race may be perceived as the far right, represented by Wilson, against the more moderate Curtis.

Will Democrats or Republicans control the U.S. House after the November elections? The U.S. Senate?

Pignanelli: If Trump is the nominee, the House flips Democrat (barely) and the Senate goes Republican. If Haley is nominated, her coattails deliver the House and Senate a strong GOP majority.

Webb: Republicans win the Senate, unless Trump helps nominate too many far-right, unelectable candidates. Democrats narrowly take over the House, because the fractious Republicans can’t get anything done there. Divided government and more dysfunction and gridlock are assured after the election. 

Will the Republican-controlled House impeach President Biden during this election year?

Pignanelli: The House impeaches Biden but the Senate acquits him.

Webb: The House will spend a lot of time investigating and pontificating, but cooler heads will eventually prevail and no impeachment vote will be taken.

Will the Republican nomination for Utah governor be competitive?

Pignanelli: Gov. Spencer Cox’s intraparty challengers will be vocal and aggressive throughout the convention and primary elections, providing a perception of competition. But the incumbent prevails overwhelmingly.

Webb: Arch-conservatives will make a lot of noise, but Cox is well-liked and will easily win reelection.

Candidate Filings, Who is Running for Office in 2024?

Dear Friends, 

The 2024 Candidate Filing Deadline was moved to January 8th, before the legislative session commences on January 16th. We now have  exciting announcements about Utah politics.
 
Lawmakers not seeking Reelection:
-Susan Pulsifer (South Jordan) - Rich Cunningham, former legislator known as the “Honey Badger”, is running for this seat
-Marsha Judkins (Provo) - running for Michelle Kaufusi’s seat as Provo Mayor
-Robert Spendlove (Sandy) - this renowned economist has been serving in the Legislature since 2015, and will be missed
-Dan Johnson (Logan) - two Republican candidates have filed for his seat
-Phil Lyman (San Juan) - will be running for Governor
-Jay Cobb (South Jordan) - served one term representing District 48
-Gregg Buxton (Weber County)- Senator Buxton decided to retire and Rep. Cal Mussleman will be running for this seat, thus leaving his house seat open
-Brian King, Democrat Representative from Salt Lake City, is running for Governor

Multiple incumbent lawmakers are facing inter-and intra-party challengers. Of interest are the following:

Elected in 2000, Curtis Bramble (Utah County) is an established force on Capitol Hill and led the National Conference of State Legislators. But Bramble has attracted formidable opposition within the GOP, including former lawmaker Brad Daw and current House member Keven Stratton. Politicos were surprised when former Sen. Dan Hemmert jumped into the race. Hemmert is former director of the Governor's Office of Economic Opportunity, a successful business leader, and became one of Utah’s top contract lobbyists. 

Recently appointed Hiedi Balderree for Senate seat 22 will face Emily Lockhart, daughter of former House Speaker Becky Lockhart in the election to fill the term.

Other developments include:
State Treasurer Marlo Oaks faces one Democrat challenger, Neil Hansen, the former state rep from Ogden who has run for treasurer, governor, and Ogden mayor.

Candidates in line for the office of State Auditor currently held by John Dougall are Republicans Ricky Hatch, Weber County clerk, and Tina Cannon. Chatherine Voutaz is the Democrat challenger.

Sen. Thatcher is running for Salt Lake County Council but will not have to give up his Senate Seat unless he wins.

Shake up on the Federal Races:
Announced running for Romney’s U.S. Senate Seat -

-Brad Wilson, Republican, resigned his position as Utah’s Speaker of the House to run for the Senate in September 
-Rep. John Curtis, Republican, the current representative of Utah's 3rd District in the U.S. House of Representatives.
-Brent Orrin Hatch, Republican,the son of the late Sen. Orrin Hatch,  attorney and  former associate White House counsel to President George Bush (41)  and a law clerk to Judge Robert H. Bork.
-Carolyn Gleich, Democrat
-Carolyn Phippen, Republican, current director of Freedom Front of Utah, and former legislative staff
-Trent Staggs, Republican and current mayor of Riverton
-Archie A Williams III, Democrat, former Orem City Council candidate.

Celeste Maloy will be back on the ballot to defend her seat in U.S. House District 2. Her opponents include:
-Ty Jansen, Republican who ran against Lee in 2022
-Colby Jenkins, Republican and former counterterrorism policy advisor to the Secretary of Defence
-Brian Adams, Democrat
 

Running for John Curtis’ seat for U.S. House District 3:
State Sen. Mike Kennedy, who won the 2018 convention against Mitt Romney for nomination to the U.S. Senate, is midterm and therefore enjoys the flexibility to run.
-Rod Bird Jr., Republican, the mayor of Roosevelt
-Kathryn W. Dahlin, Republican, is a former legislative aide in the U.S. Senate, and Republican state delegate
-John Dougall, Republican, has served as the state auditor since 2013 and for 10 years prior was a state representative
-Chris Herrod, Republican, notable for several runs against Curtis. He has won two State Republican convention nominations, but has not overtaken Curtis in the primary
-Clayton B. Hunsaker, Republican
-Case Lawrence, Republican, former CEO of Circus Trix
-Stewart Peay, Republican, former candidate for State GOP Chair, and a military veteran
-Glenn J. Wright, Democrat

Governor;s Race:

-Gov. Spencer Cox, Republican, seeking a second term and was sworn in as governor of Utah in 2021
-Carson Jorgensen, Republican, is a former state Republican Party chairman and congressional candidate
-Brian Smith King, Democrat, is a former Utah House minority leader and eight-term lawmaker
-Phil Lyman, Republican, is a state representative from Blanding
Scott Robbins, Republican

Attorney General's Race:
This is an open seat as AG Reyes will not be seeking reelection. Most notable candidate for this seat is Derek Brown, Republican, is an attorney, former Utah GOP chairman, former state lawmaker and congressional staffer.
Other Republican candidates include State Risk Manager Rachel Terry, Frank Mylar, and Trent Christrensen. Democrat challengers are David Calrson, and Rudy Bautista.

Lawmakers having notice of filed opponents during the session will be a new dynamic In Utah politics.Veteran observers will be watching to determine the impact on deliberations and policies.

Will Trump be convicted in 2024? Predictions for the 2024 political year

Will Mitt Romney join Joe Manchin on a No Labels presidential ticket? Will President Joe Biden be impeached?

By Frank Pignanelli & LaVarr Webb

We are frequently wrong, but seldom in doubt. Thus, we make bold, risky and wildly speculative predictions for the new year. Hang on to this column so you can cheer or laugh as we are shown to be seers or quacks. 

Will Donald Trump be convicted of a crime and jailed in 2024?

Pignanelli: “I try not to get involved in the business of prediction. It’s a quick way to look like an idiot.” — Warren Ellis   

The former president is vulnerable on the records charges, and will be found guilty for mishandling some documents. He will be admonished, but he will not serve any time. Also, all the trials on the criminal indictments will be postponed until after this election year. Trump will not be wearing orange jumpsuits in 2024.

Webb: Trump will be convicted on at least a few of the 91 felony charges against him across four cases. But delays and appeals will keep him out of jail. The convictions will not hurt him with his diehard supporters.

Will Utah’s GOP presidential preference vote in March caucus meetings give Trump an advantage?

Pignanelli: Yes. If Utah was conducting a preference ballot for all registered Republicans, Nikki Haley would garner a huge victory. The precinct caucus vote system will result in a much tighter contest between Haley and Trump, but she still wins.

Webb: Participation in the caucus meetings will be very low, compared to a normal primary election vote. With committed GOP activists making up the bulk of caucus attendees, Trump will have a big advantage and will win.

Will 2024 be a repeat of Trump versus Joe Biden? Who will win? If not Trump-Biden, who are the nominees and winner?

Pignanelli: The desire among Republicans to beat Biden will cause a deadlocked national Republican convention in July. After several ballots, Haley prevails. Tensions are eased within the GOP and Republicans eagerly unite behind their ticket. Because the economy is improving, Biden stays in the race and is nominated. Democrats lose enthusiasm. Haley wins both the popular and Electoral College vote.

Webb: Unfortunately, Trump and Biden will win their respective party nominations. The general election will be a stinky dumpster fire featuring old, unpopular, deeply flawed candidates. No one will be enthusiastic about the choices except party die-hards. Trump will eventually crawl out of the dumpster debris as the Electoral College winner.

Will Mitt Romney join Joe Manchin on a No Labels presidential ticket?

Pignanelli: No. But he plays a prominent adviser role and will be a public spokesperson for the cause if Trump and Biden are the nominees.

Webb: Romney will be greatly tempted to join a No Labels ticket, especially if it might reduce Trump’s chance of winning the nomination. But he will ultimately decide against running, concluding that No Labels might hurt Biden as much as Trump.

Pignanelli: The desire among Republicans to beat Biden will cause a deadlocked national Republican convention in July. After several ballots, Haley prevails. Tensions are eased within the GOP and Republicans eagerly unite behind their ticket. Because the economy is improving, Biden stays in the race and is nominated. Democrats lose enthusiasm. Haley wins both the popular and Electoral College vote.

Webb: Unfortunately, Trump and Biden will win their respective party nominations. The general election will be a stinky dumpster fire featuring old, unpopular, deeply flawed candidates. No one will be enthusiastic about the choices except party die-hards. Trump will eventually crawl out of the dumpster debris as the Electoral College winner.

Will Mitt Romney join Joe Manchin on a No Labels presidential ticket?

Pignanelli: No. But he plays a prominent adviser role and will be a public spokesperson for the cause if Trump and Biden are the nominees.

Webb: Romney will be greatly tempted to join a No Labels ticket, especially if it might reduce Trump’s chance of winning the nomination. But he will ultimately decide against running, concluding that No Labels might hurt Biden as much as Trump.

Will the contest for the U.S. Senate nomination in Utah be an ugly fight between local and national factions within the GOP?

Pignanelli: Contrary to current opinion, the fight for the U.S. Senate primary will be a well-funded cage match. Brad Wilson and John Curtis are wonderful individuals and extremely competent politicians but will face difficulty controlling the trajectory of this race. The hostile dynamics between different Republican factions in other parts of the country will foment a proxy battle in the state. Utahns will be frustrated with the bombardment from outside interests.

Webb: The Senate GOP primary race will get unpleasant, especially if Trump makes an endorsement in the race, likely favoring Brad Wilson over John Curtis. Nationally, the race may be perceived as the far right, represented by Wilson, against the more moderate Curtis.

Will Democrats or Republicans control the U.S. House after the November elections? The U.S. Senate?

Pignanelli: If Trump is the nominee, the House flips Democrat (barely) and the Senate goes Republican. If Haley is nominated, her coattails deliver the House and Senate a strong GOP majority.

Webb: Republicans win the Senate, unless Trump helps nominate too many far-right, unelectable candidates. Democrats narrowly take over the House, because the fractious Republicans can’t get anything done there. Divided government and more dysfunction and gridlock are assured after the election. 

Will the Republican-controlled House impeach President Biden during this election year?

Pignanelli: The House impeaches Biden but the Senate acquits him.

Webb: The House will spend a lot of time investigating and pontificating, but cooler heads will eventually prevail and no impeachment vote will be taken.

Will the Republican nomination for Utah governor be competitive?

Pignanelli: Gov. Spencer Cox’s intraparty challengers will be vocal and aggressive throughout the convention and primary elections, providing a perception of competition. But the incumbent prevails overwhelmingly.

Webb: Arch-conservatives will make a lot of noise, but Cox is well-liked and will easily win reelection.[

Happy New Year! 2024

If you like political chills and thrills, 2024 is for you

2024 is a presidential election year. What can we expect?

By Frank Pignanelli & LaVarr Webb

Pignanelli & Webb: “2024 is shaping up to be the most online election we’ve ever seen.” — By Kaleigh Rogers, FiveThirtyEight 

Happy new year in just a few days! 2024 will be intense and dramatic for elections and politics. The stakes could hardly be higher. The future of our politically fractured country will be determined by the results of the presidential race and control of Congress. Political events and elections in Utah will also be important.  

Here’s a look at 2024 political races, proceedings and questions we think will be important to watch and answer, from local politics to the highest levels of government.

The 2024 Utah political process

It starts earlier than ever in 2024, with the candidate filing period running Jan. 2-8. We will learn soon who’s running for what. For the first time in history, state legislators will know, for sure, who their opponents are before the beginning of the legislative session. Will that affect lawmakers’ deliberations? We’ll see.

Utah’s participation in the massive March 5 Super Tuesday primary/caucus presidential preference vote will be a big deal. Utah should get some presidential candidate attention in January and February. The Utah Republican Party decision to conduct its presidential preference vote through precinct caucuses, instead of a primary election, means far fewer people may decide Utah’s preferred GOP presidential candidate.

The 2024 legislative session

The governor and legislators seem focused on housing, homelessness, tax reduction, energy and water issues. Early preparation, especially infrastructure needs, for the 2034 Winter Games will be discussed. How will new, hard-charging House Speaker Mike Schultz impact the Legislature and its priorities? It will be fascinating to watch.

U.S. Senate and House races

When Sen. Mitt Romney announced his retirement, it appeared then-House Speaker Brad Wilson was the favorite to win the seat. But when Congressman John Curtis said he was thinking of joining the race, Wilson’s path to victory became much harder.

Both candidates will be well-funded and enjoy solid endorsements. How far to the right of Curtis will Wilson portray himself? Will these candidates — and especially their allied super PACs — resort to negative messaging? Will Donald Trump make an endorsement in the race? Curtis and Wilson are both very solid candidates. The debates will be good political theatre.

Meanwhile, a grundle (that’s a scientific political term) of candidates will seek to replace Curtis in the 3rd Congressional District, should Curtis run for the Senate. We will see recognizable politicos, along with new faces.

State races

With Attorney General Sean Reyes not seeking reelection, the open race to replace him will also attract several candidates. What will be the impact of a legislative audit of the attorney general’s office? 

Gov. Spencer Cox should cruise to reelection. But it won’t be without a little pain, as he will be aggressively challenged from the far right. 

Control of Congress

Nationally, control of Congress is as important as the presidential election. Much is at stake. Simple arithmetic (even your columnists can add and subtract), determines Republicans should take control of the Senate, based on the number of vulnerable seats in 2024. However, the Trump factor may come into play. If he endorses far-right candidates who win the primaries but can’t win the general election, Democrats may retain control.

The U.S. House status is unpredictable. Democrats have a real chance to take over, but the unpopular President Joe Biden could be a drag for Democratic candidates.

Presidential race

As we have written, we are both less than excited about the two front-runners for president. They’re old (even older than us!), they don’t think clearly, and they are out-of-touch with mainstream America. We can suggest a half-dozen better candidates in both parties.

Trump’s current polling lead over Biden is one of the most surprising things in politics for years. It shows the depth of dislike for Biden all across the country. But Trump is the most divisive top-level politician in America in generations. If he wins, and Democrats take over the House, Trump will say and do enough outrageous things he could be impeached every month. The presidential race promises to be ugly.

External factors and key issues

The economy will be a big factor in electoral politics. Biden currently gets the blame for inflation and the financial insecurity felt by many citizens. If the economy avoids recession and comes in for a soft landing, will Biden benefit?

Abortion is another issue that looms large and may benefit Democrats in close races. Also, how much turmoil will occur as the nation transitions to clean energy and grapples with the impact of artificial intelligence? What is the impact of the Biden impeachment action?

The southern border, with record numbers of illegal immigrants entering the country, will also be a big issue, along with foreign affairs. The world has become a scary place, with significant wars in two parts of the globe.

Locally, two important upcoming decisions by the Utah Supreme Court could impact legislative action and the election. The court is expected to rule on a restrictive state abortion law and on a challenge to the Legislature’s redistricting maps.

Buckle up for 2024. It’s going to be a wild ride.

The secret Christmas wishes of Utah politicians

What do Utah and national politicians wish to receive this Christmas?

By Frank Pignanelli & LaVarr Webb

One trait of a successful politician is her or his ability to obtain help and support from volunteers and prominent individuals. Thus, Santa Claus is a natural target for politicians and their wish lists. With Santa, there’s no expectation of future favors or obligations.

So, without the use of artificial intelligence (we’re too old to know how to use it), but via traditional nefarious means (overhearing rumors at fundraisers), we secured the wishes of our local politicos for this Christmas. (Note: these are all made-up things, meant to be tongue-in-cheek. Tell your lawyers to calm down.)

Gov. Spencer Cox: Normally I would ask for peace everywhere and goodwill toward others, but I’ve been pretty much spreading that message through my civility campaign all year long without help from the North Pole. So I’ll modestly ask Santa to provide housing for everyone in the state.

U.S. Sen. Mike Lee: This whole concept of intruding into people’s lives to determine who is naughty or nice is galling. Santa’s snooping makes the NSA look amateurish. It’s really none of his business. Bah! Humbug! By the way, small copies of the Constitution make great stocking stuffers.

U.S. Sen. Mitt Romney: My number of Christmas cards received has dropped considerably since publication of my very candid tell-all book. I’ve had a pretty good ride for many years, and a nice capstone gift would be if “you know who” does not win the nomination. Just a thoughtful solicitation.

All Utahns: We did ask for a playoff berth for the Jazz last year — which you did not deliver. We’ve been nicer this year, so please ... please ...

All Utahns II: We appreciate the great winter last year. Please repeat, but this time with snow in the mountains and rain in the valleys.

Lt. Gov. Deidre Henderson: 2024 is a big election year and voter fraud will not occur under my watch. Please deliver silence from all the misguided grumblers who think otherwise.

Congressman John Curtis: I have but a small request — that every voter in Utah undergo a limited episode of amnesia so they forget my declaration that I would not run for the U.S. Senate.

Former House Speaker and current Senate candidate Brad Wilson: Please, Santa, help voters remember what a well-governed state they live in, especially as they respond to poll questions.

Riverton Mayor Trent Staggs: Simple request: Just remind voters who is the Trumpiest candidate of them all.

Congressman Blake Moore: Santa, please help Utahns understand what great power and clout I now have as vice chair of the House Republican Conference.

Newly elected Congresswoman Celeste Maloy: All I want is for those delegates and voters who supported me in September to continue their affection in the coming election year.

Former President Donald Trump: Short list: Shut the border, get out of NATO and the United Nations and impeach all those prosecutors and judges who want to put me in jail.

President Joseph Biden: Short list: All voters view a TikTok video of me vigorously jogging up the stairs of Air Force One, reciting the Gettysburg Address backwards without a pause or stumble, with this chant in the background: Jobs are up, inflation is down, income is up, crime is down, life is better.

Senate President Stuart Adams: All I ask for is better revenue figures. I love to build things, so we need more state dollars for that and a nice tax cut.

House Speaker Michael Schultz: For the first time in state history we will know who legislative opponents are before the session begins. I ask for minimal intraparty challenges to reduce posturing and ensure civility during the session.

Left-wing activists: We refuse to ask Santa for anything. The whole idea of this misogynistic figure taking credit for Mrs. Claus’ efforts and those of vertically-challenged nonunion workers is outrageous. He’s obviously not a vegetarian and is cruel to his transport animals by demanding millions of destinations in one night.

Right-wing activists: We refuse to ask anything of Santa. He promotes redistribution of wealth, giving to those who haven’t earned it and delivering presents inside enemy nations and those with socialist agendas. He’s a proven radical eco-freak as he uses carbon-free animals instead of diesel engines to power his sleigh.

Salt Lake City Mayor Mendenhall: Santa, please remind my friends on Capitol Hill I saved them from four years of torture by preventing the return of “he-who-shall-not-be-named.” Please demonstrate your gratitude by funding homeless and housing programs.

Salt Lake County Mayor Jenny Wilson: In 2022, you took away the Republicans’ veto-proof majority. How about a Democratic majority County Council in 2024, along with my reelection?

Congressman Burgess Owens: A nice stocking stuffer would be a Utah Supreme Court decision upholding the Republican redistricting plan.

Pignanelli & Webb: We wish happy holidays to our readers and ask Santa for a never-ending supply of political machinations to write about.

Why is Utah a sea of tranquility in a political world that’s turning upside down?

The working class is turning Republican while wealthy elites lean toward Democrats. How does the Beehive State stay so relatively calm?

By Frank Pignanelli & LaVarr Webb

The political world seems a little upside down as 2023 comes to a close. Republicans and Democrats are trading places on some issues and both parties have been acting rather crazy. We take a look.

Republicans were traditionally tough toward Russia. But today, many oppose more funding to Ukraine, which is fighting for survival against Vladimir Putin. Republicans, in the past, were the party dedicated to a strong America that kept the world safe. Now, the Democrats are committed to Ukraine defeating Russia. Republicans are trending isolationist, as Democrats become more globalist.

Meanwhile, some far-left progressives are antagonistic toward democratically-led Israel but offer only nominal criticism of the murderous Hamas organization. Also, the working class and people of color were reliable Democratic votes. Now, these citizens increasingly prefer Republican candidates. Wealthy people were once steadfast GOP followers. Today, many richer Americans prefer Democrats. How did politics in this country get so upside down?

Pignanelli: “The Democrat party has the appearance of an hourglass, with a lot of upscale voters and upper-middle class professionals, and a lot of voters who are not that well off… But what’s missing is what used to be the middle of the party, blue-collar workers.” — John Judis, co-author, “Where Have All the Democrats Gone?”

Numerous books and articles on this topic are filling politicos’ holiday reading lists. (We mentioned the realignment of parties in prior columns). Contrary to numerous predictions several years ago, the FDR New Deal coalition is shattering for reasons unexpected.

A bulk of American voters is the multiracial working class that is drifting to GOP candidates beyond Donald Trump. Veteran observers suggest the modern left-wing progressive factions are alienating these once solid Democrats by pushing the party to extreme positions on cultural and environmental issues.

American history documents that significant realignment of political parties occurs because of major social revolutions. We are living in such times.

Webb: The common denominator in these political reversals is a growing distrust of “the establishment” — meaning big government, big business, Hollywood, big tech, and academia. Many Americans, especially the working class, are feeling alienated and resentful toward “elites,” and are tired of hearing about social injustice and being made to feel they are racist, sexist and environmentally illiterate. 

The result has been the election of a lot of belligerent populists who reinforce the notion that the elites don’t care about working-class citizens and are destroying the country with their woke ways. Because the “ruling class” favors funding for Ukraine and globalist policies, the populists are against it. If you’re feeling left behind by the elites, it’s easy to resent foreign aid, immigrants and the Biden administration for allowing millions of people to enter the country illegally. 

These folks (many of my rural neighbors) are happy to support someone (Donald Trump) who’s going to blow everything up. They are highly disillusioned about government and the establishment, and they feel things were better when Trump was president.

The leading Republican presidential candidate specializes in insults and faces 91 criminal charges. The leading Democratic presidential candidate is noticeably frail, often confused and very unpopular. The Republican-led House of Representatives was stymied in a state of chaotic paralysis for three weeks because it couldn’t elect a speaker. The new speaker is having trouble wrangling his members. Anarchy reins along the U.S. southern border as the Democratic administration is unable to control the massive influx of illegal immigrants. Why do things seem to be spinning out of control?

Pignanelli: Our nation faces massive domestic and foreign challenges. Americans, frustrated with a dysfunctional federal government, feel powerless in responding to horrific events. The history of our 247-year-old republic is replete with numerous examples of incompetence, malfeasance and occasional corruption. But our nation’s past also reveals the multitude of challenges confronted and overcome by our ancestors. We will do the same and continue to prosper.

Webb: I’m a broken record on this, but the underlying problem of mass citizen cynicism is the federal government growing too large and trying to impose social, environmental and industrial policies championed by the elites, but not supported by the working class. America is too diverse and too large for central planning. My neighbors don’t want to be told how to live their lives by federal bureaucrats, intellectuals, environmental activists or tech billionaires.

By contrast, in many ways Utah is a sea of tranquility in an ocean of political turmoil. Why are things going well in the Beehive State?

Pignanelli: Utahns are a pragmatic people embodied with numerous virtues derived from a legacy of hardship, religious discrimination and perseverance. Thus, the many common goals of prosperity, safety, education and personal liberty are prioritized and not sacrificed to the political extremes from either side. This resulted in sound economic diversity while promoting the strength of families and mutual respect among citizens.

Webb: Government works very well, and enjoys broad citizen support, when sensible, frugal and accessible city, county and state leaders make decisions — with plenty of transparency and input — tailored to meet local needs.

A look at the current state of presidential politics in Utah

By Frank Pignanelli & LaVarr Webb

Utah will once again be the focus of presidential politics when the University of Utah hosts the final presidential debate on Oct. 9, 2024. It will be exciting for citizens of the Beehive state. However, we’re far from knowing who will be standing on that debate stage 10 months from now. We analyze the current state of presidential politics as it relates to Utah.

A recent Deseret News/Hinckley Institute poll revealed 20% of Utah Republicans preferred former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haleyto be Donald Trump’s running mate should he secure the nomination. Some 18% selected Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. In an October poll, the question, “If the 2024 Republican presidential primary were held today, who would you vote for?” resulted in 30% for Trump; 14%, DeSantis; 13%, Haley; 12%, other candidates; and 20% undecided. What does this reveal about the Republican nomination in Utah?

Pignanelli: “There are two Republican primaries happening – the primary to challenge Trump and the primary against Trump for the GOP nomination. The first must end conclusively or Trump wins the second by plurality.” -- Marc Thiessen, Fox News These surveys offer fun calculations. Despite commanding leads in other states, Trump struggles in Utah. Adding undecided to the 35% that want someone else, the resulting 57% indicates Utahns desire an alternative to the former president.

Immediately after the 2022 elections, almost 100 frustrated local Republican officials sent a letter to DeSantis urging him to run for president, who was then 11 points ahead of Trump. However, DeSantis’ popularity slowly dropped in Utah and nationally, while Haley’s reputation rose.

The unknown factor is the Utah Republican presidential preference election will be made through those attending precinct caucuses and not a general ballot. It is difficult to predict where these activists will be in late winter.

Political observers were amazed by a Marquette University survey stating that Haley performed the best against Pres. Joe Biden, 55% to 44%. The calculus indicates Utah Republicans are leading a subtle national trend.

Webb: I, unfortunately, can’t see Haley or DeSantis overtaking Trump for the GOP nomination, unless he’s serving a lengthy prison sentence. Even then, many of his supporters would stick with him. Trump will also likely win Utah’s electoral votes, although with not as large a margin as in most other Republican states.

Why Republicans support Trump when better alternatives exist remains a mystery to me. Personally, I don’t like bullies. And Trump acts like a junior high school bully. He claims to be 50 points ahead of DeSantis and Haley, but instead of being magnanimous (he would not understand the meaning of that word), he personally insults them and calls them stupid names (“birdbrain Haley”). Does he not understand he will need the votes of their supporters in the general election?

Someone placed me on Trump’s email lists, so I get all of his campaign email messages (about a dozen a day). I can barely stand to read them. He constantly belittles his competitors, not just disagreeing with them on policy, but engaging in personal insults. He boasts, he exaggerates, he lies, he rewrites history. He has massive character flaws and is simply not fit to be president. Either DeSantis or Haley, by contrast, would be stable, sensible and tough conservative presidents.

An earlier Deseret News/Hinckley Institute poll affirmed 65% of Utahns disapproved of Pres. Biden. As of this week an aggregate of national surveys compiled by FiveThirtyEight affirmed 55.4% of Americans disapprove of Biden (53.1% have similar negative attitude towards Trump). How will this affect presidential deliberations in Utah?

Pignanelli: Texas Sen. Ted Cruz captured almost 70% of the votes cast in the Utah Republican presidential primary in 2016 (Trump received 16%). Of all the red states, Utah performs the worst for Trump. Consequently, the desire to dump Biden may push precinct caucus attendees to select the strongest alternative to Trump still standing on March 5. Afterwards, there will be six months of Biden bashing in the primary and general elections.

Webb: Unfortunately for Democrats, Biden is the likely Democratic nominee. He will lose in Utah, even against Trump, and probably in enough swing states for Trump to reclaim the presidency. I’ve been watching presidential politics for 50 years and I don’t believe we’ve had two worse presidential frontrunners. One is mercurial and vengeful and the other is feeble and will destroy the economy with massive deficits and federal spending. Both parties should select younger nominees who are more vigorous and more acceptable to the general electorate. But I worry it’s too late.

Utah’s presidential preference election will be on “Super Tuesday”, March 5, 2024, along with 17 other states and a territory. Could Utah have a real impact on this massive event?

Pignanelli: 10 primary/caucus elections will occur before this mega-election, weeding out the weakest candidates. The precinct caucus attendees determining the Utah selection is a smaller audience. Thus, candidates can spend less to gain more traction in gathering valuable convention delegates. Our state could be a critical breakthrough for a trending contender.

Webb: Assuming they’re still alive (politically) in March, DeSantis and Haley will be scrambling for every possible delegate. So if either one thinks a win is possible in Utah, the state could attract significant attention.